Circular Business Models

<p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Mankind vs. Reality. 10</p>The Science of Problem Solving. 11<p></p><p>References. 12</p>Part One – Business and Organizational Aspects of Circular Economies. 13<p></p><p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Development as a Process of Organization.. 13</p><p>The Organization of a Circular Economy. 15</p><p>A Development Over a Century. 17</p>References. 19<p></p><p>3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Author’s Journey. 20</p><p>Earlier Thoughts on Sustainability, Circular Economy, and Transformation.. 21</p><p>Sustainability. 21</p><p>Circular Economy. 22</p><p>Technology Development, Business Transformation, and Peak Oil 23</p><p>References. 23</p><p>4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Circular Economy and Business Challenges. 25</p><p>Understanding Innovation and Business Development 26</p>Imminent Threats. 28<p></p><p>Crossing the Chasm – from Idealistic to Demanding Customers. 30</p><p>Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming vs. Resource Depletion.. 31</p>The Experience Curve. 32<p></p><p>References. 33</p><p>5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Complexity – The Tightly Woven Fabric of Society. 34</p>Complexity in Modern Society. 34<p></p><p>The Increasing Specialization in the Linear Economy. 36</p><p>Increasing Specialization of the Circular Economy. 37</p>References. 38<p></p><p>6.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Could Resource Shortages Cause Problems?. 39</p><p>Complex Development 41</p><p>A Development in Steps. 42</p><p>Driving Change. 46</p><p>A Collaborative Effort 46</p><p>A Systems Perspective. 47</p><p>References. 47</p>7.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Multiple Helix Collaboration for the Development of a Circular Economy. 48<p></p>A Multipe-Helix Innovation System.. 48<p></p><p>The Role of Governments. 49</p><p>Research and Training. 51</p><p>Non-Government Organizations. 52</p><p>Civic Society and the General Public. 53</p>Company and Public Sector Procurement 54<p></p><p>References. 55</p>8.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Managing Change. 56<p></p>Change Management 58<p></p><p>Examples of Roles. 60</p>Early Phases of Transformation.. 60<p></p><p>The Savings Paradox. 61</p><p>Dismantling Obsolete Systems. 63</p><p>Mind-Set and Behaviour Change. 64</p><p>Leading Through Change. 64</p>The Resource Based View of Business Strategy. 66<p></p><p>References. 68</p>Part Two – Challenges by industry and business sector 69<p></p><p>9. Local Production and Distribution Systems. 69</p><p>The Current Situation.. 70</p>Transformation to Local Production and Distribution Systems. 70<p></p><p>The Development of Local Markets. 71</p><p>Efficient Systems for Local Production.. 72</p><p>Local Value Chains. 73</p><p>Local Food Production.. 73</p>Volume Growth.. 74<p></p><p>Secondary Qualities. 76</p><p>The Role of Large Firms. 77</p><p>Customers Form Industries. 78</p><p>Steps to Change. 78</p>Step 1: Local Stand-Alone Concepts. 79<p></p><p>Step 2: Local Production and Distribution Concepts. 79</p><p>Step 3: Integrated Local Value Chains. 80</p><p>Step 4: Volume Competition.. 81</p><p>Step 5: Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 81</p>Disruptive Aspects of Change. 81<p></p><p>From Global to Local Production and Distribution.. 82</p><p>Procurement Strategies. 82</p><p>A New Focus. 83</p><p>Opportunities for Local Production Offered by Digitalization.. 84</p>Changing Customer Preferences. 85<p></p><p>Step 1: Indifferent Majority. 86</p><p>Step 2: Emerging Preferences. 86</p><p>Step 3: Widespread Adoption and Volume Growth.. 86</p><p>Step 4: Circular Majority. 87</p>Step 5: Preferences for Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 87<p></p><p>References. 87</p><p>10. Sharing and Extended Use. 88</p><p>The Present Situation.. 88</p><p>Sharing Models. 88</p>Growth Opportunities and Patterns of Use. 90<p></p><p>The Product as a Service. 92</p><p>Inexpensive Alternatives. 92</p><p>Potential Growth Areas. 92</p><p>Integration.. 92</p><p>Flow.. 92</p><p>High Value. 93</p>Genuinely Circular?. 93<p></p><p>Steps to Change. 94</p>Step 1: Pilot Sharing Models. 95<p></p><p>Step 2: More Customers Prioritize Sharing. 95</p><p>Step 3: Sharing becomes the new normal 96</p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 96<p></p><p>Extended Use. 97</p>Services Targeted at Consumers. 97<p></p><p>Business-to-Business. 99</p><p>Steps to Product Life Extension.. 100</p><p>Step 1 – Occasional Extended Use. 101</p><p>Step 2: Behaviour Change and Systems in Place. 101</p>Step 3: Extended Use Becomes a Priority. 102<p></p><p>Step 4: Extended Use Becomes the Norm.. 103</p><p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 103</p>References. 103<p></p><p>11.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Standardization and modularization.. 104</p><p>The Development and Growth of Lean Production.. 105</p><p>Design and Re-design.. 108</p>Step 1: Pilot Modularization.. 109<p></p><p>Step 2: Training and research.. 109</p><p>Step 3: Widespread adoption.. 109</p><p>Step 4: Legislation and procurement requirements. 110</p><p>Step 5: Modularization Becomes the Norm.. 111</p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 111<p></p><p>References. 111</p>12. Recycling and Upcycling. 112<p></p><p>Corporate Re-manufacturing. 113</p><p>Materials Recycling. 114</p><p>Materials Difficult to Recycle. 114</p><p>Steps to Recycling and Upcycling. 115</p>Step 1: Recycling and Incineration.. 115<p></p><p>Step 2: Increased Materials Recycling. 116</p><p>Step 3: Increased Upcycling. 116</p><p>Step 4: Increased Use of Biologically Based Materials. 116</p><p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 116</p>References. 116<p></p><p>13.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Biologically based materials. 117</p><p>Existing value chains. 118</p><p>Transforming Plastics. 118</p><p>Plastics from Wood. 121</p><p>Competition with Food Production.. 121</p>The Volume Issue. 121<p></p><p>Steps to New Materials. 123</p><p>Step 1: Pilot Introduction.. 123</p><p>Step 2: Volume Growth.. 124</p><p>Step 3: Resource Constraints. 124</p>Step 4: Reduction and Restructuring of Use of Materials. 124<p></p><p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 124</p><p>References. 125</p><p>14.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Transportation systems, renewable fuels and energy efficiency. 126</p><p>Scarcity and Climate Change. 126</p><p>Reduced Dependence on Oil?. 128</p>The British Fuel Crisis. 129<p></p><p>The Challenge of Transportation.. 129</p><p>A Web of Interrelationships. 135</p><p>Saving Power in Existing Applications. 136</p><p>Steps to the Transformation of Transport Systems. 138</p>Step 1: Early Adopters and Innovators Buy. 138<p></p><p>Step 2: Volume Growth.. 138</p><p>Step 3: Electric Car Dominance. 139</p><p>Step 4: The Last of Petroleum Cars. 140</p><p>Steps for Heavy Vehicles. 140</p>Market Analysis and Programme Planning. 142<p></p><p>References. 146</p>15.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Construction, Infrastructure, and Digital Technologies. 147<p></p>Examples of Circular Models in Construction Related Areas. 148<p></p><p>Healthy and Sustainable Buildings. 148</p><p>Flooring. 148</p><p>Digitalization.. 149</p><p>Examples of Circular Business Models Based on Digital Technologies. 149</p><p>The Main Direction of Digital Development 149</p><p>Brief, But Important 150</p><p>References. 150</p>16.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Life Sustaining Resources and Technologies. 151<p></p>Health Care. 151<p></p><p>Utilities. 152</p>Work. 153<p></p><p>Risk Management 153</p>References. 154<p></p><p>17.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Financial Innovations. 155</p><p>Financial Risk Taking. 156</p><p>Financial Innovations Support Circular Development 157</p><p>Crowd Funding. 157</p><p>Complementary Monetary Systems. 158</p>Cryptocurrencies. 159<p></p><p>Reforming the Global Economy?. 160</p><p>Aspects of Disruptive Change. 161</p><p>References. 162</p><p>18.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; General Purpose Technologies as the Basis for Transformation.. 163</p><p>The Organization of Hypocrisy and Organization Man.. 165</p>Is Rapid Transformation Possible?. 167<p></p><p>The Transformation of US Industry to War Production.. 168</p><p>The Marshall Plan.. 169</p>The Apollo Program.. 170<p></p><p>Venice and the Preparations for the Fourth Crusade. 170</p><p>The Volume Issue Revisited. 171</p><p>References. 172</p><p>Part Three – A Way Forward. 173</p>19. Risks and Logical Fallacies. 173<p></p><p>Great Expectations. 174</p><p>Some Numbers. 176</p><p>Peak Oil 176</p><p>Peak Gas. 177</p><p>Phosphorous. 177</p><p>Rare Earth Elements. 178</p><p>The Paths of Peak Resources. 178</p><p>Understanding and prioritizing. 180</p>Decision Theory. 182<p></p><p>Fallacies of Experts and Decision Makers. 183</p><p>Failure to Realise That Society is Vulnerable. 183</p><p>Failure to Recognize the Scale and the Systemic Aspects. 184</p><p>Failure to Understand Markets. 184</p>Mistaking the Problem for the Solution.. 184<p></p><p>Mistaking a High-Level Description of the Solution for the Transformation Strategy and Plan&nbsp;&nbsp; 185</p><p>References. 185</p>20. Planning The Way Forward and Reality Check. 186<p></p><p>Steps to Circular Economic Flows. 186</p><p>Step 1: Trying Out Circular Models on a Small Scale. 186</p><p>Step 2: Evaluation of Progress and Simulation of Scale-Up. 186</p><p>Step 3: Avoidance of Conclusions. 186</p>Step 4: Prioritization.. 187<p></p><p>Step 5: Development of Strategies. 187</p><p>Reality Check. 187</p><p>Increasing Complexity Complicates Change. 187</p><p>Few Short Term Incentives to Change. 188</p>Little Experience of Resource Shortages. 188<p></p><p>Focus on a Description of Energy and Fuel Resources as a Sources of Pollution.. 188</p><p>It Takes Time to Calibrate World-Views and Resource Needs. 188</p>Will Decisions Be Made in Time?. 189<p></p><p>21.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Paradigms, at Last 190</p><p>Scientific Revolutions. 190</p><p>The Circular Economy as a Paradigm Shift 191</p><p>Merging Paradigms. 192</p><p>References. 193</p><p> </p>Epilogue&nbsp; 194<p></p><p></p>