Markets Never Forget (But People Do): How Your Mem ory Is Costing You Money and Why This Time Isn′t D ifferent

Preface ix
<p>Acknowledgments xvii</p>
<p>Chapter 1 The Plain–Old Normal 1</p>
<p>Yes Sir, Sir John 1</p>
<p>The Normal Normal 5</p>
<p>The Jobless Recovery 14</p>
<p>The Always Feared, Rarely Seen Double Dip 23</p>
<p>Chapter 2 Fooled by Averages 31</p>
<p>Bull Markets Are Inherently Above Average 32</p>
<p>Viva the V 36</p>
<p>Normal Returns Are Extreme, Not Average 47</p>
<p>The Pause That Refreshes (and Confuses) 49</p>
<p>Getting Average Returns Is Hard Really Hard 53</p>
<p>Chapter 3 Volatility Is Normal and Volatile 57</p>
<p>What the Heck Is Volatility? 58</p>
<p>Volatility Is Volatile 61</p>
<p>The Daily Grind 65</p>
<p>Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds? 67</p>
<p>Economic Volatility Also Normal 69</p>
<p>Volatility Isn t Inherently Bad 71</p>
<p>Never a Dull Moment 74</p>
<p>Chapter 4 Secular Bear? (Secular) Bull! 81</p>
<p>Seeing the World Through Bear– Colored Glasses 82</p>
<p>Two Secular Bear Markets? 84</p>
<p>Stocks Up Vastly More Than Down 90</p>
<p>Chapter 5 Debt and Deficient Thinking 101</p>
<p>Deficits Aren t Bad, but Surpluses Will Kill You 105</p>
<p>The History of Big Government Debt 110</p>
<p>Just Who Is at Default Here? 116</p>
<p>Chapter 6 Long– Term Love and Other Investing Errors 123</p>
<p>No One Category Is Best for All Time 124</p>
<p>Long– Term Love Is Like Long– Term Forecasting Both Wrong 129</p>
<p>It s Still Heat Chasing Even When It Seems Safe 134</p>
<p>Use History to Your Advantage 146</p>
<p>Chapter 7 Poli–Ticking 151</p>
<p>Enter the Ideology– Free Zone 152</p>
<p>Your Party Isn t Better 153</p>
<p>Presidents and Risk Aversion 155</p>
<p>Perverse Inverse It s Four and One 160</p>
<p>Poli– Tics Go Global 170</p>
<p>Poli– Tics Versus Entrepreneurs 172</p>
<p>Chapter 8 It s (Always Been) a Global World, After All 177</p>
<p>It s Always Been a Small World 179</p>
<p>Seeing the World Right 186</p>
<p>Conclusion 194</p>
<p>Appendix 197</p>
<p>Notes 201</p>
<p>Index 211</p>